Super 8: Week 6 NFL Picks

andrew luck
Photo from businessinsider.com

By: Matt Doherty and Liam O’Brien

Liam: Jets (-2.5) over Colts

Betting against Indianapolis on the road is a surefire way to pad your bank account.

The Colts have key members listed on the injury report with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and safety Clayton Geathers doubtful along with the questionable Margus Hunt and Darius Leonard. They rank 27th in scoring defense and are playing against a New York team who found their offensive footing in a 34-16 victory over the Broncos on Sunday.

If Leonard, the NFL’s leading tackler despite missing Week 5’s loss to the Patriots, can’t give it a go, the Colts will be in danger of giving up 30-35 points.

Matt: Dolphins (+3) over Bears

The experts are high on Da Bears but let’s not get sucked into that vacuum just yet. Chicago nearly lost at one-win Arizona a couple weeks back and then blew out a disinterested Tampa Bay team before the bye, which is why Vegas put this line at the Bears -3.

On the other hand, Miami returns home, desperately needing a win to salvage the 3-0 start. And it’s not like the Dolphins have a bad loss. (Both losses came at New England and at Cincinnati). I think Miami keeps this game very close and interesting – possibly pulling out the win. The Bears hype comes back down to Earth.

Liam: Colts/Jets over 45

Not only does Indianapolis give up a lot of points, they score often as well.

The Colts’ mentality is to rely on the arm of Andrew Luck, evidenced by their uneven ratio of 246 pass attempts to 101 rushing attempts. Luck has been eating up yards, passing for 1,491 already in addition to 12 touchdowns and a 66.5 percent completion rate.

Indianapolis is going to move the ball up the field against this bend-don’t-break Jets defense, and if it gets to the point of a blowout, Luck is keen on taking advantage of garbage time opportunities.

Both of these offense rank in the top half of the NFL in per game scoring, averaging a total of 48.2 points per game. Add in the poorness of the Colts defense and the over should be a near lock.

Matt: Jaguars (-3) over Cowboys

If you watched the Sunday Night game last week, I want to apologize. Dak Prescott and the inept Dallas offense struggled mightily to move the ball against Texans. Jason Garrett mismanaged the game Andy Reid style. And it felt like the two teams were playing to tie – not win. It was gross.

So how in the world is Dallas only a three-point underdog against a team that nearly made the Super Bowl a year ago?

This line is way too low. I can’t imagine a world where Dak Prescott puts up more than 20 points against this Jaguars defense. In fact, all I can envision is Prescott throwing multiple pick-sixes, Jalen Ramsey dancing uncontrollably in the endzone, and Jason Garrett clapping on the sidelines.

Liam: Ravens/Titans under 41.5

Normally, I subscribe to the theory that life is too short to bet the under.

When it’s concerning a game between two top three scoring defenses, I switch my logic.

The Ravens and the Titans have both starred defensively, with the former leading the NFL with just 15.4 points allowed per game and the latter not far behind with 17.2 points yielded per game.

Not to mention their offensive flaws.

Marcus Mariota and the Titans gained 221 yards and turned the ball over three times in a loss to the Bills while Joe Flacco and the Ravens scored just nine points in an overtime loss to the Browns last week.

Matt: Colts (+2.5) over Jets

I’m going against Liam and riding with the Colts.

Let’s put our Sherlock Holmes hat on and take closer look at Indianapolis’s season.

In Week 1, they lost at home to Cincinnati but were driving to win the game in the last minute before Jack Doyle fumbled.

In Week 3, they lost on the road to the defending Super Bowl champs by four points and once again were driving to win the game.

In Week 4, they lost in overtime on a game-winning field goal. But the game would have been a tie if Frank Reich didn’t go for it on their own 41 with no timeouts and 24 seconds remaining.

And in Week 5, they lost at New England on a Thursday night (No shame). Basically what I’m saying is Indy is a lot better than their record indicates and they are due to pull out a close win.

The last time the Jets won (Week 1 at Detroit) they were favored the following week and lost at home. It will happen again.

Liam: Bills (+10) over Texans

Why the bookmakers are treating Houston as if they were 5-0 is beyond me.

If not for a spineless call by Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to punt the ball on fourth down in Texans territory in overtime on Sunday night, Houston would be 1-4. This would match their record against the spread.

Simply put, don’t take the bait Vegas is putting out in favor of this Houston squad. The majority of their offensive weaponry is banged up, with DeShaun Watson, Lamar Miller, Keke Coutee and Ryan Griffin all listed as questionable.

The Texans allow 25.6 points per game and they score 23 points per game on offense, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both categories.

Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a gritty victory against a Titans team everyone was praising going into Week 5.

Matt: Vikings  (-10.5) over Cardinals

Public bettors are going to be afraid to take the Vikings this week after the Great Myth of 2018 when they lost at home to Buffalo in Week 3 by 21 as 17-point favorites and ruined every survivor pool.

But let’s be real: it won’t happen again. Minnesota will be ready this time around against an inferior opponent and a rookie quarterback. The Vikings looked really good in a loss at the Rams two weeks back and then knocked off Philly on the road last week. This team is starting to find their mojo and look like the team that was a Super Bowl favorite at the start of the season.

The Vikes should roll and make Josh Rosen’s QBR look like a gas price when it’s all set and done Sunday.

Season Records:

Matt: 10-5-1

Liam: 7-11-2

 

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